Surprise vs Reaction Scatter
Each point is a macro print plotted by its consensus surprise (σ) against the subsequent market reaction. The dashed line is the ordinary-least-squares fit across all events.
Computing regression...
Every CPI and IIP release carries a consensus surprise — how far the actual print landed from the market consensus, normalized by the historical standard deviation of past surprises (measured in σ).
X-axis: the surprise score (σ). Y-axis: the market reaction — the percentage move in the selected asset from T-60 minutes to the chosen window.
Regression line: an OLS fit of reaction on surprise. A steep, high-R² slope implies markets reprice sharply when prints miss consensus; a flat line implies surprises are already priced in.
MPC decisions are excluded — they carry no numeric consensus surprise and are analysed separately on the Event Study page.